As the holiday shopping season draws to a close, data from Visa’s annual Retail Spend Monitor and industry analyses confirm what many retailers and analysts anticipated: online shopping continues its steady climb, while in-store purchases remain the backbone of holiday spend – all against a backdrop of tighter consumer budgets and accelerating AI adoption.
E-Commerce Growth: Solid, Not Spectacular
Visa’s latest preliminary data shows U.S. holiday retail sales rose about 4.2% year-over-year through much of the peak shopping period – a modest gain amid inflation concerns and economic unease. Within that growth, e-commerce held the pace, rising roughly 7–8%, outpacing overall retail expansion but still lagging the double-digit surges seen in the pandemic era.
Analysts say this reflects a maturing online marketplace – consumers are embracing digital convenience, but many still enjoy the immediacy and experience of physical stores. According to Visa, in-store transactions made up roughly 73–88% of total holiday spending volume, depending on the market studied (e.g., U.S. vs. Canada).
Omnichannel Habits Take Root
This holiday season, omnichannel behavior wasn’t just a buzzword – it was business reality. Retailers reported that consumers increasingly blended channels: browsing or comparing products online before buying in store; buying online and picking up at a local store (BOPIS) to avoid shipping delays; using mobile apps to access promo codes or track inventory.
This aligns with reporting that online channels are now essential for discovery and price comparison – not just for final purchases. Even when shopping physically, consumers tap digital tools first to inform decisions.
Tech & AI: Transforming How We Shop
Technology was not a sideshow this season – it was central. Visa’s research suggests that almost half of all U.S. holiday shoppers used some form of AI for at least one shopping task, from finding products to comparing prices and sifting through promotions. Meanwhile, analysts reported that AI tools also influenced checkout behavior, leading to more intentional purchases and less impulse spending – a trend retailers are calling the “smart shopper” effect. Industry insiders expect these behaviors to accelerate – hinting that AI-driven commerce (where systems can actually complete transactions on behalf of consumers) could be mainstream by 2026.
Category Winners: Electronics & Apparel Lead the Pack
Visa and other data sources paint a clear picture of where consumers are spending. Electronics showed strong demand growth, with gadgets, AI-enabled devices and holiday tech staples leading the way. Clothing and accessories spending accelerated faster than many other categories, particularly in markets like Canada. These categories benefited from early promotions, extensive online inventory, and the fact that many gifts bought digitally arrive faster than ever thanks to improved logistics.
Global Context: 2025 vs 2024
Across major markets, retail spending grew year-over-year – but at a moderated pace compared to recent pandemic-era surges.
United States
In the U.S., holiday retail sales (excluding autos and fuel) rose about 4% in 2025, according to early data from Visa and Mastercard — roughly in line with 2024’s growth, signaling stable but cautious consumer spending. Online sales continued to expand, with U.S. e-commerce projected to exceed $253 billion, up approximately 5.3% year-over-year. Mobile devices drove over half of that digital spend, further cementing smartphone commerce as the dominant channel.
United Kingdom
UK retail paints a more mixed picture. While some high-street retailers anticipated last-minute boosts, retail sales dipped in the pre-Christmas period in late 2025, with some online categories posting weaker results than expected. This contrasts with 2024, when both online and in-store holiday sales showed modest gains.
Australia
Across the Pacific, Australians were expected to spend billions on Boxing Day in 2025, with estimates showing a 4.4% increase over 2024, driven by household goods and apparel, reflecting solid seasonal demand despite economic headwinds.
Spotlight on South Africa: E-Commerce Rising Fast
While global markets settle into single-digit growth, South Africa’s holiday retail story is notable for its rapid shift toward online shopping, even if bricks-and-mortar still dominates.
Stronger Holiday Growth in 2024/25
Visa Consulting & Analytics’ Holiday Spend Monitor found South African holiday retail spending grew approximately 7% in 2024/25 compared to the prior year, a larger gain than seen in many developed markets. Within this growth, online shopping surged roughly 23% year-over-year, a striking acceleration that far outpaced overall retail gains. Physical retail still made up the bulk of spend — about 84% in-store versus 16% online – but the balance has shifted noticeably as consumers adopt digital habits.
E-Commerce Momentum Beyond the Holidays
South African digital retail isn’t just a seasonal spike. Broader market data shows the country’s online shopping market is forecast to surpass $7 billion by 2025, growing at a much faster pace than traditional retail. Moreover, roughly half of South Africans now shop online weekly, reflecting habitual adoption beyond peak seasons.
Black Friday 2025 Highlights
South Africa’s recent Black Friday weekend underscored the trend: online sales jumped sharply year-over-year, with digital transactions accounting for nearly a quarter of total retail sales over the period – up substantially from prior years.
Region-by-Region Holiday Comparison (2025 vs 2024)
United States: Holiday retail growth remained around 4% in both 2024 and 2025 according to Visa and Mastercard data. E-commerce remained steady with mobile shopping showing continued increases.
United Kingdom: After modest gains in 2024, the UK experienced mixed results with slight declines in the late season of 2025. Retail sentiment remained cautious throughout the period.
Australia: Following a post-season uptick in 2024, Australia showed an approximately 4.4% increase expected for 2025, with Boxing Day serving as a strong indicator of consumer demand. South Africa: Growing from approximately 4.8% in 2023–24 to roughly 7% in 2024–25, South Africa demonstrated broader retail gains with online shopping surging more than 20%.
What’s Driving the Differences?
AI and digital tools have globally influenced a growing share of online purchases – from product discovery to checkout decisions – pushing digital channels forward even when overall spend growth was modest. AI adoption has grown faster year-over-year, especially among younger consumers.
Economic realities show that cautious consumer sentiment persists across markets. In the U.S. and UK, inflation concerns and budget constraints kept growth moderate. In South Africa, stronger localized economic conditions and value-focused holiday deals helped lift spend more significantly.
Mobile and social commerce continue to expand e-commerce reach. Globally, mobile accounted for a majority of online holiday transactions, and social platforms like TikTok Shop made meaningful gains in marketplaces like the U.S. during peak periods.
What This Means Going Forward
Omni-channel is now baseline, and retailers must blend online and in-store experiences seamlessly. AI isn’t optional anymore – shoppers are using tech to cut through noise, and retailers that ignore AI risk losing market share. Mobile and digital convenience remain central, and with online sales still growing faster than in-store, optimizing mobile and e-commerce experiences is mission-critical.
